Reader Questions: Military Families when SHTF

Ryan,

I?m 64 and doing well on prepping. New home in Idaho is almost ready and will be able to sustain myself/wife, son # 1 family (3 people) and son #2 (3 people).

Son #1 lives in Seattle and is 1.5 tanks of gas away. He always has extra gas so, with any warning, he can make it to my place fine.

Son # 2 is a?CPT at Ft. Carson, Colorado and is 3+ tanks of gas away.

Having served in the Army, I know that during extreme times, Son #2 will be required to stay with his unit and he will comply. Even with some warning about a SHTF event, sending his wife and small child alone to Idaho is not realistic if the gas supply en-route could be in any way compromised. Sending me down to pick her up, needing 7 tanks of gas for the round trip is not realistic either.

Other than bugging in, or getting lucky with lots of warning so your family can drive to safety, how do military families deal with this?

I?m not sure if your readers would be interested in your answer, but feel free to publish this letter.

Ron

TOR here:

Well Ron, You bring up an interesting question. I see it breaking into 2 distinct pieces; bugging out and the military component. Addressing them separately and then touching on how one affects the other makes the most sense to me.

I am generally pretty skeptical about plans that require really long drives. Obviously closer is better but if it is a serious social/ population/ setting change you need 5 (or sometimes even 50) miles? will not cut it. I would be mildly concerned about a plan that required driving 250 miles and pretty concerned about one that required driving 500. Admittedly those numbers are somewhat arbitrary though they could be broken down to 1 and 2 tanks of gas. In any case.

It should go without saying that you should be ready to leave quickly if circumstances permit, have ample (2x what it normally takes seems prudent if arbibtary) fuel on hand and multiple routes planned.

In addition to sheer physical difference we have to do some?route analysis. I could talk about military acronym's here as they are often how I organize my thinking but I don't really feel like it. So let's just keep it simple. Population centers and choke points are bad. Wide empty roads through the middle of nowhere with lots of bypass routes are good.

For example in the case of Son #1 since I am more familiar with that area. His chances of success increase?considerably if he gets out of Seattle, which is a nightmare with all of it's bridges, exponentially when he gets?over the Cascades and are looking pretty good (if he goes that way which is likely) after crossing the Columbia river.

Son #2 obviously has a pretty long drive. Without a lot of personal knowledge of that area or doing any research I would say the drive could be better and could be worse. On the plus side the population density is pretty low but on the downside there may be some real terrain issues with choke points, particularly in winter.?

I hesitate to use the word luck but there are certainly risk factors inherant of such plans. While carrying enough 5 gallon cans to make the drive is possible it is a long way and I would at least look at setting up a cache or two along the way. Also keep PLENTY of cash on hand, who cares if gas is $50 a gallon if you can drive the whole way. Assuming sufficient fuel is? available from storage/cache/purchase, the weather is not an issue and that things are not totally crazy with every municipality setting up road blocks and gangs of roving criminals ambushing cars this sort of plan stands a fair to reasonable chance of success.

As to the military and how it relates to this whole thing. There are a couple posts in my head which address larger issues so this will be relatively narrow in scope.

Whether he would be ordered to stay on duty would depend on a lot of factors.?If he should decide to comply with these orders or to desert is another question with it's own set of factors. For the sake of this discussion let us briefly hit the high points of each options.

He stays on duty. This is the most realistic answer for most situations.?This may mean staying local or it is quite likely that he may leave to be part of some sort of military response. This means that his family can either stay in the area bugging in at home or on post or bug out without him.

He deserts. If things get totally absolutely crazy nobody is going to come looking for him any way. He comes home with the family. Then agan if things get that bad it might not be the time for a 1,500 mile family?road trip. Staying with a huge cohesive group of well armed and trained individuals might not be a terrible way to go anyway.

As a middle ground he might be able to wrangle a period of leave or a pass to run the folks up to you and then come back. If his boss likes him and the area is quiet it might work and is certainly worth asking about. Should he happen to?infer that one way or another he is driving the fam up to Idaho they may like the option where he comes back afterword.

In any case getting out of Dodge before things go nuts is seriously advisable. Waiting long enough makes a decision by default. The fam can always go up for a "vacation" if some of your warning signs start getting met. At least they would be secure and he could reassess and decide what to do for himself down the road.

As to the military's particular challenges as it relates to this discussion. We move all over the place. If I wasn't in the Army we would live in the quiet and empty part of the PNW which would make a lot of things much simpler. To further complicate things we move often which necessitates changing or reinventing plans every few years. This is just a hassle and complicates the time and expense of things. Let us say that Son #2 was a home depot manager or whatever?in Colorado for the long term or essentially permenantly. Son #2's emergency plan is to come to your place. He plans some routes and buys a couple of conveniently located but discrete pieces of junk land along the way. With some time and energy you could probably do it for a couple grand. He stashes a bunch of fuel, some fluids, water, food and ammo at them. While the long bug out problem is not fixed it is greatly simplified because you do not need to haul everything for the trip or (a long shot) buy it enroute. See where I am going? Doing that once wouldn't be a big deal but every 2-3 years?it might?get a bit crazy.

At some point, a point I think Son #2 is?approaching but not quite at, you have got to be realistic that getting home is not a plan with a reasonable, let alone good, chance of success. Getting from FT Drum, New York to Arizona is not likely. Getting from FT Lewis, Washington to South Carolina is not likely. In this sort of situation I would put time and energy into developing plans that are in ones current region. While that isn't a fun answer it is probably reality.

Anyway those are my thoughts on that. I hope it helps or at least drums up some useful conversation.

?

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